Friday, October 29, 2010

Your No Challenge for the Champ!

Most incumbents have an overwhelming advantage against their opponents. This is because incumbents tend to have greater name recognition, more money, campaign organization, voter support, experience, resources, and “friends in high places” (Herrnson 206). Consequently, challengers struggle to compete. Although, challengers are at a disadvantage that does not mean there is no chance at victory. A strong challenger who knows how to campaign correctly has the opportunity to win if the incumbent makes a mistake or the national conditions are in the challenger’s favor. However, Jerry Labriola is not a strong challenger (Herrnson 211). He does not have the political experience, voter support or campaign organization needed to come close to incumbent Rosa DeLauro.

It is no surprise that a Republican challenger running against a Democratic incumbent would be at a disadvantage; however being the underdog does not mean victory is impossible. A strong challenger who knows how to campaign can increase his or her chances at keeping up with the incumbent. Challenger Jerry Labriola does not fit the profile of a strong opponent. Although Labriola has professional experience in law, he greatly lacks any political experience. Most challengers with political experience have the ability to think strategically. Thinking strategically means using political information and data to make critical campaigning decisions. I believe that Labriola’s lack of political knowledge has greatly prevented him from making wise choices (Herrnson 34). Another more devastating strike against Labriola is his lack of voter support. The majority of the voters in the third district of Connecticut supports Rosa DeLauro and lacks any strong knowledge of Labriola. “Familiarity breeds content”, the voters are familiar with DeLauro so they are content and do not have any need to replace her. Finally, the greatest disadvantage that prevents Labriola from being a strong challenger is his inability to raise enough funds. Labriola has failed to gather a significant amount of funds. As stated in my previous blog, “Financing a Political Campaign”, Labriola has only managed to raise $108,344 compared to DeLauro’s $898,214. DeLauro has managed to gather a great amount of wealth over the years; something Labriola has not had the privilege of doing.

Also if Jerry Labriola was a better challenger he would have taken advantage of the current national conditions. Right now the economy is making little progress; many people have been laid off from their jobs; and we are in the middle of what some believe is an unwinnable war against terrorism. And who is blame? According to many Republicans that would be the Democrats. Consequently, it would be beneficial if Republican Jerry Labriola took advantage of this idea and blame Rosa DeLauro for helping the Democrats cause many of the problems the country is facing. Although I still do not believe Labriola would have a fight chance against the undefeatable incumbent, I do believe that he could have at least caused her popularity to decline slightly. Maybe instead of having a 99.9% chance at victory, DeLauro’s chances at victory can decrease to 97% (FiveThirtyEight.com).

All in all, Labriola is not a strong enough challenger for DeLauro.

Friday, October 22, 2010

A Desperate Attempt By A Desperate Man

Negative campaigning has become the weapon of choice for challengers’ facing an established incumbent. Challengers use negative advertisement to disrupt the tendency of voters to for the incumbents. The challenger must be able to convince the voters that the incumbent is unfit to hold their position. Although incumbents also resort to negative campaigning many times they only do so when they are faced with potential threat. In the third congressional race, Jerry Labriola is determined to break to bond between the voter’s and the Rosa DeLauro.

According to Herrnson’s Congressional Elections, negative campaigning is a legitimate form of campaign communications that has the potential to enhance the electoral process (Herrnson 176). Negative campaigning is used to illuminate the unflattering and scandalous attributes and a practice of the competing candidates which is said to forces them to be held accountable for their actions. Although I disagree with this justification for dirty mudslinging, negative campaigning is a very popular practice especially among challengers facing an otherwise untouchable opponent. Republican Jerry Labriola has come to depend on this tactic to combat the Democratic incumbent Rosa DeLauro. Currently, Labriola has released campaign commercials that question DeLauro’s pervious actions and beliefs. He makes it seem as if the voters will be in serious trouble if they re-elect DeLauro.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1abxwBUzB4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXx2aADmYHw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0z2b0GExBk8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEgCz10YsVg

However, Rosa DeLauro has not resort to this type of negative campaigning. I have yet to discover any negative campaign ads released by DeLauro against her opponent. The reason maybe that she does not feel threaten. She has been able to consolidate her lead so there is really no reason to go negative like Labriola. I do not believe that his approach will help him win the election but it may make a few people reconsider voting for her.

Friday, October 15, 2010

Ignorance is Bliss; Especially For Rosa DeLauro

During elections it is essential for Congressional Candidates to understand that the average voter does not know much about political affairs. The majority of voters are rationally ignorant, which means they do not want to waste or energy researching the candidates because the cost of doing so outweighs the benefits. This is considered rational because one should not do anything where the bad outweighs the good. Instead voter may rely on contact with the candidates, recall and familiarity, and Partisanship to help guide their decision. The candidate who is more capable to take advantage of this trend among voters will increase his or her chances at victory. It looks like in the congressional race between Rosa DeLauro and Jerry Labriola; DeLauro is the one with the most knowledge of voter behavior.

It seems as if Rosa DeLauro has benefited the most from the voters reluctance to research political affairs while her opponent voters Jerry Labriola has drastically lagged behind. According to The Politics of Congressional Elections by Gary C. Jacobson, Voters like candidates who attempt to make contact with them. This can be through mail, a telephone call, or personal contact. DeLauro is better known than Labriola because over the years she has made the effort make contact with all the voters either one way or another. Also because Rosa DeLauro has managed to avoid any major scandals she has not attracted much attention from the popular media so any information the voters get about her comes directly from her office. So the only negative information that voters have about DeLauro must come from the Labriola campaign.

Recall and familiarity is also a prime factor at the polls. Voters need to be able recall the candidates and also become familiar with them. The more familiar the voters are with candidates the more likely they are to determine what they think about the candidate. DeLauro is also privileged in this category because the people are more familiar with her. Also they are more likely to recall what they like about her rather than what they like about Labriola. Lastly the major factor that is going to put DeLauro over the top is partisanship. It is no secret that Connecticut is a Democratic State. Most of the people never vote against the party consequently, I do not see Republican Jerry Labriola getting close to the number of supporters DeLauro has gained through just party affiliation.

Friday, October 8, 2010

Vote For Me! Vote For Me!

“Successful candidates craft a message with broad appeal, set the political agendas that defines voters, and get their supporters to the polls on election day” (Herrnson 156). Candidates need to know their voters in order to create a successful campaign strategy. This includes knowing what motivates people to vote and what influences them to vote the way they do. There are three major assumptions that candidates make about voters before formulating a campaign strategy; first, the majority of voters do not know much about the candidates or what they support; second, voters are more likely to vote for the candidate whose name they recognize; and third, voters have a tendency to vote for those affiliated with their political parties (Herrnson 160). Taking these factors into account, candidates need to focus on their targeting, communications, and messaging.

When campaigning, candidates know that they do not have a chance at reaching all of the voters so instead they target specific groups. Candidates target the possible voters then determine their political preferences, and based on this information they attempt to formulate the best plan of action to reach these groups. Many factors come in to play when creating a strategy but the one that will be the most significant in the race between Democrat Rosa DeLauro and Jerry Labriola will be candidate loyalty and party affiliation. The residents of the third district of Connecticut have been very loyal to incumbent Rosa DeLauro in previous elections (she has never won by less than sixty-six percent of the vote) as well as the Democratic Party. As the unfavorable challenger, Jerry Labriola needs to focus on not only getting vote from the few Republican Party loyalists but also he needs to target supporters from members of the Democratic party as well.

Communication with the voters is very crucial for the candidates. Through outlets such as television, newspaper, direct-mail, and radio advertisements, candidates are able to increase name recognition, attack the credibility of their opponents, and defend themselves from their opponents. Today, candidates are using computerized social networking sites such as Twitter, Facebook and Youtube to reach the younger voters. Both Rosa DeLauro and Jerry Labriola can be found using at least one of these networking sites.

http://www.wikio.com/video/jerry-labriola-spice-ad-politician-delauro-4151139

http://www.facebook.com/RosaDelauro

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Jerry-Labriola-for-Congress-2010/116701135037253?ref=ts

http://twitter.com/jerrylabriola

Throughout the campaign it is important for candidates to create a message about themselves that “gives substance to a campaign and helps to shape the political agenda, mobilize backers, and win votes” (Herrnson 168). Rosa DeLauro's message includes her affiliation with the Democratic Party, “fighting for people” slogan, her twenty year reign, and her leadership positions as co-chair of the House Steering and Policy Committee, and chairs the Appropriations Agriculture Subcommittee. Jerry Labriola's message on the other hand down plays his affiliation with the Republican Party, exalts his slogan calling for the retirement of Rosa DeLauro (“20 Years is Enough”), and calls for the end of big government spending. DeLauro and Labriola are going do whatever they can to create a campaign strategy that will reach the voters.

Friday, October 1, 2010

Financing a Political Campaign

For many years organized interest groups have been involved in congressional elections. These groups are determined to influence the result of the elections in a way that will benefit them. Today organized interest groups are highly dependent on Political Action Committees (PACs) to do majority of their campaign activities; these activities have to deal with providing support and assistance to the candidates they support. PACs can fall within two categories: ideologist based and access based. The type, mission, and purpose of the PAC can be used to determine exactly why the interest group would decide back a particular candidate (Herrson 104).

House incumbents such as Democrat Rosa DeLauro have a tendency to depend on party committees, individuals, and PACs to support their campaigns (Herrson 130). According to opensecrets.org, Rosa DeLauro has raised $898,214 for her campaign, sixty-four percent of it from PAC contributions. DeLauro’s campaign has been supported by both access and ideological PACs. Ideological PACs follow strategies that will help them increase the number of legislators with their political views. They believe that congressional elections are their opportunity to influence who will be the members of congress and Affect public policy. Ideological based PACs would normally invest their funds in a close election but in some circumstances they may give support in noncompetitive races in order to attract more attention to themselves or organization, or towards a politician who supports their way of thinking (Herrson109). Rosa DeLauro’s campaign has been backed by a substantial number of Ideological based PACs such as the American Federation of Teachers.

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=CT03&cycle=2010

On the other hand, access based PACs focus on getting the attention of congress. They use the elections to get in good with the members of congress who are likely to support legislation that is important to their organization. Election time gives these PACs the opportunity to make nice with influential legislator or even attempt to decrease tension between those who disagree with them (Herrson110). Boeing Co. is the world’s top manufacture of commercial airplanes and invests in much other expenditure as well. The company has donated $10,000 to Rosa DeLauro’s campaign with the hopes of getting Congress to increase defense spending and gain military contracts.

House challengers are not as lucky as incumbents. Challengers are often unable to raise enough money to match their opponent. This is unfortunate for Republican challenger Jerry Labriola who depends less on the finical support of PACs. Altogether Labriola has raised $108,344 for his campaign with only two percent from PAC contributions. The majority of his finances have been provided by individuals and his own finances. The reason why Labriola has not been able to raise as much money as DeLauro may be due to his limited campaigning experience and lack of name recognition (Herrson140-142).With such a disadvantage one would question what made Labriola decide to run in the first place.